( NYSE:VSLR ) and Sunrun ( NASDAQ:RUN ) both ended the year down more than 50%, and before being bought out by Tesla Motors Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), SolarCity’s stock was down 60%. The challenge heading into 2017 is that the pressures rooftop solar is facing aren’t going to get any easier. RUN data by YCharts . Why growth disappeared in 2016 The big shock of the past year has been the massive slowdown in residential solar growth. The extension of the Investment Tax Credit has given the industry stability in federal subsidies, but it’s also removed the urgency of installing solar. And with costs continuing to decline, it may make sense for customers to wait rather than install rooftop solar today. According to SEIA/GTM Research’s U.S. Solar Market Insight Report , third-quarter residential solar installations were up just 2% from a year ago and fell 10% sequentially. The industry overall has had to adjust by cutting costs, particularly in sales and marketing, and by focusing more on the profitable customers who are left. Compounding the growth challenge is the fact that customers no longer see signing a 20-year PPA/lease attractive given the low cost of installations and greater availability of loans, which was a shock to Vivint’s, Sunrun’s, and SolarCity’s business models. Financing changes course The rooftop solar industry was built on third-party financing in the form of PPAs and leases. Solar companies were able to use tax benefits more efficiently than customers and could get better financing terms, mainly because banks didn’t know how to finance one-off rooftop solar systems.
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